'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
Elections are not won or lost by expounding on such macro-economic matters. For the aam admi, what matters in manifestos are promises that will improve their quality of life, notes Vinayak Chatterjee.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
Indian economy had grown at 6.6 per in 2013-14.
'Citibank customers will migrate to the Axis Bank platform over 18 months.'
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) slim majority in Lok Sabha may delay more far-reaching economic and fiscal reforms that could impede progress on fiscal consolidation, Moody's Ratings said on Wednesday. NDA securing a majority in the general elections will give a historic third term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister of India. "We expect policy continuity, especially with regards to budgetary emphasis on infrastructure spending and boosting domestic manufacturing, to support robust economic growth.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
'When you do some job for a few hours, you are hardly earning enough to survive.'
The critical information in the first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) data relates to the proximity of real and nominal GDP growth rates at 7.8 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. The implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation is only 0.2 per cent. This phenomenon has repeated after fifteen quarters.
If it was Andhra Pradesh last Budget, it's poll-bound Bihar that has now turned to Centre with a list of demands. How the NDA government is delivering on promises.
India remains an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) on account of healthy prospects of economic growth and its skilled workforce, according to a survey by Deloitte. A large proportion of international business leaders remain confident in India's short- and long-term prospects and are readying plans to make additional and first-time investments in the country, it said on Tuesday. "The survey, which questioned 1,200 business leaders of multinational corporations in the US, UK, Japan and Singapore, found that India remains an attractive destination for investments, scoring highly for its skilled workforce and prospects for economic growth," the survey - India's FDI Opportunity - said.
Economists, however, caution against interpreting the data as a broad-based revival
The cumulative impact of flagging investments that set in during 2011-12 has taken the shine off the India growth story.
Bihar, Odisha and Chattisgarh had grown the most industrially in FY14.
India Inc could be embarking upon a new phase of capital expenditure (capex) cycle, observed analysts, and suggest its revival would lead to a rerating of industrial stocks. Assisted by a property upcycle, analysts at Jefferies said several government initiatives were likely to drive capex. Indicators, they said, include a private project announcement at Rs 25 trillion for 2022-23 (up 150 per cent from pre-pandemic levels) and credit growth at about 16 per cent, which is closer to pre-pandemic highs.
The outcome of Maharashtra state elections is unlikely to move markets much, said analysts. The markets, they believe, have bigger developments to worry about in the short-to-medium term.
India's corporate sector, including public sector enterprises (PSEs), continues to go slow on investments and capital expenditure (capex). According to data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), corporate investments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). After a contraction of 0.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter, corporate investments likely fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY24, write Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladhaa of MOFSL in their recent report on corporate investments.
Indian economy had grown at decade low rate of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13. The economic growth in 2013-14 was 4.7 per cent.
The government on Friday said the economy may have expanded by 4.5 per cent in 2012-13, compared with the earlier estimate of 5 per cent, on account of subdued performance in agriculture, mining and manufacturing.
Weighed down by the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, Reliance Industries (RIL) results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2024-25 (FY25) missed Street estimates. A 14 per cent fall in the O2C segment's operating profit compared to the year-ago quarter and a 22 per cent sequential decline pulled down the consolidated performance. The O2C segment accounts for a third of the overall operating profit and about 60 per cent of the attributable consolidated profit.
The sudden stop in economic activity led to a sharp decline in employment-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport etc.
As India's investment rate is estimated to decline this financial year, industry chamber CII has asked Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to give a boost to investments in the forthcoming Budget, but economists believe a rollback of stimulus may continue.
The big domestic economic challenge today is the slowdown in growth and infrastructure investments.
India Inc's investment project announcement falls to Rs 11.3 trillion. In the coming months, the pace of investments would depend on how soon consumption demand picks up and private sector investment ramps up investment in infrastructure.
Chief statistician T C A Anant says growth figure might go up once indirect tax data is fully in, however, he agrees that private expenditure is yet to pick up
Savings in deposits by the households rose, however, to Rs 1 trillion (17 per cent) in the year to Rs 6.91 trillion in FY14 as against Rs 5.91 trillion in 2012-13.
The fall in investment rate is not surprising. But putting it together with rising share of wages in GVA, it shows that the focus is more on productivity, rather than adding new capacity, says Pronab Sen, former chief statistician of India.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
RBI moves will further add to corporate woes. Harsh Mariwala, the president of industry body Ficci, said, "I am afraid that with such a hawkish monetary stand, the investment environment would become even more difficult. Growth and employment targets will certainly not be achieved."
The loans taken have come down and hence the net capital inflow has reduced.
Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Monday pegged India's growth this financial year at 6.5-7 per cent. He added the country had taken various steps to boost investment, the results of which would be seen in six months.
If the industrial sector expanded, growth rate is likely to rise in the remaining quarters to reach 7.6-7.8 per cent for 2017-18.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
As a percentage contributor to nominal GDP, PFCE's share was 60.1 per cent in FY23, compared with 59.6 per cent and 60.8 per cent in the two preceding fiscal years. "Although PFCE is expected to grow 7.7 per cent in FY23, we believe it is still short of a broad-based recovery. "The current consumption demand is highly skewed in favour of goods and services consumed largely by the households falling in the upper income bracket. "A broad-based consumption recovery, therefore, is still some distance away," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist with India Ratings.
Since 2000-01, the Indian economy has shown the tendency of being unable to absorb all domestic savings as investments.
